The new Congress will convene in Washington later this week, and in the House, one of the first actions its members will take on Friday will be to elect the Speaker of the House. It’s one of the most powerful positions in the federal government, as the Speaker presides over the House of Representatives and stands behind only the Vice President in the order of presidential succession.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, has been in the position since October 2023. He’s likely to be re-elected. However, the Republican majority in the chamber is incredibly slim – 219 to 215 with a seat vacant. Johnson will only be able to lose a couple of votes and still continue in the role. U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican, has already come out against Johnson, saying the Speaker supported a measure to continue funding the government that included too much unnecessary spending.
Johnson did earn the support of President-Elect Donald Trump on Monday, and that should give enough cover for most GOP House members to vote for Johnson. That said, it’s still possible fringe members of the Republican caucus, such as U.S. Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Lauren Bobert of Colorado could hold up the vote in hopes of getting concessions from Johnson and the party’s caucus for the next two years.
With that in mind, BetColorado.com used its Colorado sports betting mindset and created odds on who House members will choose to be Speaker for the upcoming Congress. These odds are for infotainment purposes only and are not available at any licensed sportsbook in Colorado.
Who Will Win 2025 Speaker Of The House Vote?
Name | Odds | Implied Probability |
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) | -500 | 83.33% |
U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) | +1900 | 5% |
U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) | +2900 | 3.33% |
Elon Musk | +4900 | 2% |
U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D- New York) | +4900 | 2% |
U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer | +6600 | 1.5% |
Field | +3200 | 3% |
These odds are exclusive to BetColorado.com and are unavailable on Colorado sportsbook apps.
Breakdown of House Speaker Candidates
A quick reminder, no state where sports betting is legal has allowed its sportsbooks to offer odds on elections or other political events. However, online exchanges Kalshi and PredictIt are currently offering political markets to the public in all 50 states. Their markets include the upcoming House Speaker vote, as federal judges decide whether such markets are legal.
You may wonder why we have Elon Musk’s name on our odds board. The Speaker does not have to be an elected House member, and earlier this month, U.S. Rep. Rand Paul of Kentucky floated the idea of the billionaire Tesla founder, X owner and Trump consigliere as Speaker.
On Monday, Musk also posted a message on his social media platform backing Johnson’s re-election.
While Johnson remains the heavy favorite, it’s not necessarily a guarantee that the race will be decided quickly or that Johnson won’t face a call to vacate as his predecessor did.
Two years ago, the House needed 15 rounds of voting over several days to finally select U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, as the Speaker. Similar to the upcoming session, Republicans held a slight majority in the chamber. However, McCarthy’s bid was held up several GOP members initially held out as they sought concessions from their colleagues on key issues.
Even after striking a deal, McCarthy's term ended just 10 months later when some Republicans forced his removal after he passed a measure to keep the government running with Democratic support.
Author
Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters.
